Love Letter from Brussels
Living for the Moment (No.13)
7th of April 2015
The other day Ms. Misao Okawa, a Japanese national who was officially recognized as the oldest living person in the world, passed away at the age of 117. On a personal note, the Ambassador I worked for during my time as a first secretary at the Embassy of Japan in the United States of America some 20 years ago also passed away recently. Meanwhile, a colleague I was close with from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and with whom I worked together at the Embassy in the US suddenly died at the young age of 49. It was a week in which I strongly felt the importance of “life and death” and “living for the moment”.
I would like to take this opportunity to talk a bit about demographics, life expectancy and the ageing population in several countries. These are important indicators to measure a country’s national strength and future trends.
First of all, Japan. Japan is known as the most aged nation in the world. It has the world’s highest average life expectancy of 84 years (80 for men (5th place worldwide) and 87 for women, (1st place)). In the context of economic growth, if the ratioof the non-working population (those younger than 15 or older than 65 years of age) in relation to the total population (hereafter called the “Dependency Index”) decreases, it is said that there is a "Demographic Bonus", and when the index starts to increase, there is an ageing population and the economic growth also slows down, which is called a “Demographic Onus”. In Japan, the Dependency Index started to increase from the mid-90’s on. In present day Japan, one in four people are 65 or older, and the ratio of the aged population to the working-age population (between 15 and 64) (hereafter called the “Elderly Population Index”) is more than 40% in 2013 (2.5 workers are supporting 1 elderly). However, looking at this in a positive way, if we could create a system to deal with this ageing, which is unprecedented in human history, it will without a doubt become a model for tackling population ageing in other countries as well, and so it could also lead to new business opportunities.
Although Japan’s population is in decline, with 127 million people, it is still ranked 10th worldwide. These “human resources”, supported by a high level of education, will be the foundation for the future national power of Japan. However, the population of Japan has started to decrease since 2009. In the 6 years until 2014 it has decreased by 1 million. If this trend continues, it is expected that Japan will have a population of 108 million in 2050 (16th place) and 84 million by 2100 (29th place). That is why effective measures are required.Next is the United States. The average life expectancy is 79 years (36th place), but the ratio between the total population and the people above 65, when compared to Japan’s 25%, remains a gradual increase in the region of 12-13% for the past 20 years. In addition, the strength of the United States is that they are among the few developed countries that are expected to have a substantial increase in the population. Currently the US has the 3rd largest population of the world with 316 million people, which is expected to grow to 401 million by 2050 and 462 million by 2100. This shows the continued hope for the future and the possibility of keeping the “Frontier Spirit” in the United States. By the way, in spite of this population growth, in 2050 the US is expected to become the 4th largest country in terms of population, being overtaken by Nigeria by that time.
What about China? The average life span is 75 years (67th place), but the problem for China is the surprisingly early start of an ageing society. Depending on the situation, it has been pointed out that the Dependency Index might start to increase even this year. In addition, it is expected that the Elderly Population Index of China will follow the Japanese trend with a delay of about 30 years and will experience the same situation of current Japan (40%) by 2045. That is why there is an urgent need for improving the system of nursing care and pensions in China, and to do so I think that China could benefit from Japan’s ample experience in this matter.
On the other hand, when talking about population, China is now in first place with 1.361 billion people, but the forecast is that it will be overtaken by India in 2028, and after reaching a peak in 2030 with 1.453 billion, its population will evolve to 1.385 billion in 2050 and 1.086 billion in 2100.
India is for the time being growth-orientated both in population as well as in the ageing of its population. With a current life expectancy of 66, it is still on a low 139th place, but it is expected to rise in the future. Until about 2040 the Demographic Bonus is expected to continue (trend of declining Dependency Index), which is good news for the economic growth. The ratio of people over 65 is still only about 5%.
It is ranked 2nd with 1.234 billion people, but it is expected that India’s population will grow to 1.454 billion in 2028, overtaking China and reaching 1.620 billion people in 2050. In addition, it is anticipated that the population in India will reach its peak in 2063 with 1.645 billion people to decrease to 1.547 billion people in 2100.
When looking at demographics only, the situation in Russia is quite severe. The life expectancy is only 69 years (122th place). Taking only the men into account, it is 63 years (142nd place). Russia ranks 9th in world population with 144 million people, thus surpassing Japan, but its population has been decreasing since 1997, decreasing by 5.5 million in the ten years between 1997 and 2006. Recently the population has been growing slightly again, but in the long term it is expected to continue to decline to 121 million in 2050 (15th place) and 102 million in 2100 (23rd place).
Finally, what about Belgium? The life expectancy is 80 years (29th place). The ratio of the population older than 65 is 18% (12th place in Europe), but this is not high compared to Japan. On the other hand, Belgium has a population of 11 million (71st place), rising since 1987 and having increased by more than 1 million people in the 18 years up to 2014. By 2050 the population is expected to reach 12 million and 13 million by 2100. Belgium too, although small, was a shining country!
*1. Average Life Expectancy according to the WHO’s 2012 statistics.
*2. Population numbers according to the IMF World Economic Outlook of October 2014.
*3. Prospects of Population Increase According to the United Nations’ 2012 World Population Prospects, 2012 revised edition.
*4. Ageing of the Population According to the World Bank Statics and the United Nations’ World Population Prospects, 2012 revised edition and others.
