Love Letter from Brussels
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Presentiment of ‘a Hot Summer’ (No.37)
15/06/2016
Tropical Storm
It’s already mid-June and lately there are more and more days where even in Brussels the temperature exceeds 20 degrees. Compared to Japan, however, it’s still quite cool and it’s light outside until nearly 10 o’clock in the evening. Many Belgians are enjoying the arrival of summer on a roadside terrace with a beer in one hand.
However, compared to last year, it feels like the humidity is extremely high. Recently there are also many evening showers. It’s pleasant during the day but when the evening approaches dark clouds hang low and it suddenly starts raining cats and dogs for a short amount of time. It feels very tropical. The situation is not as serious as the floods in France, but I wonder if this could be the effect of global warming.
Seminar Rush
The “seminar-rush before the summer vacation” is also keeping me very busy. Looking at the past month I had to give a special lecture at a management school in Innsbruck on 23 May, a lecture for the Eurocorps (Note) HQ staff in Strasbourg on 10 June and a lecture at the department of Japanese Studies at the University of Lille, France, on the 13th. On June 16 and 17, I’ll be serving as a panel member at the annual seminar of Japanologists residing in Europe at the University of Warwick, UK. On the 28th I’ll be speaking at the Nato Defense College in Rome and on the 29th and 30th I will participate in a small round table meeting on the new US-EU relations, based on the “EU’s New Global Strategy” which will be published at the end of this month.
In the meantime, there is also a NATO Summit on 7-8 July in Warsaw where I am to attend as the Japanese government representative for NATO. This important summit will discuss the two challenges for the NATO, namely in the “East (Russia) and the South (refugees, extremism)”as well as greater cooperation with the EU.Note: EUROCORPS is a joint force consisting of 10 European countries (6 framework nations: France, Germany, Belgium, Luxembourg, Spain, Poland) and 4 associated nations (Italy, Greece, Romania, Turkey). Its headquarter is located in Strasbourg and each country allocates forces in accordance with the requests from NATO and EU to respond to missions.
Hot summer
Meanwhile, the British referendum on whether to remain or leave the EU will take place on 23 June. Whatever the result, it will have a great impact on the future of the EU and Europe as a whole. Of course, it is the British people who decide, however, their vote will affect not only Europe, but the whole world, including Japan, so I’m following the process with immense interest. In this regard, lately, during lectures, I assert my personal opinion as follows.
１． From now until beyond 2030, there are 3 global trends that should be taken into account.
First is the rise of both China and India. This means that 2.5 billion people or 1/3rd of the world population will become more prosperous. Therefore, the existing order needs to be adjusted to this new massive change. That’s why “rulemaking” is important.
Secondly, the odds that the US will remain the world’s only superpower up to 2030 are high. One reason for this is the maintenance of the frontier spirit through a constant population growth. However, since its comparative advantage is inevitably reduced, further contributions are necessary from allies and likeminded countries.
Third, around 2030, China’s GDP and defense budget are expected to reach the same level as the United States’ GDP and defense budget. However, just when you might think that the G2 era has arrived, in fact it is expected that the Indian population will surpass China as the country with the world’s largest population. In short, the actual chance of the much-discussed G2 is very low, but after 2030 there will likely be a G3 group consisting of the United States, China and India that will dominate the world.
２．Japan is investing in the future through strengthening its US-Japan alliance as well as its strategic partnership with India in order to hold a significant place in such a G3- world.
３．Given this situation, a united and strong Europe is very important for Japan. The reason is that in the existing world order, only the three poles of the United States, the democratic countries in Asia, including Japan, and Europe are both able and willing to work for realizing world stability and prosperity by adjusting the world order.
In any case, if Europe (or EU), like Japan, wants to hold a meaningful position in a 3G-world, it has clearly more chance to do so if it stays strong and united. Of course, this is up to the European people. No one can predict the outcome of the UK referendum. Anyway, a ‘hot summer’ for Europe’s future is about to begin.